TERC final report

the word 'strategy' is tossed around a lot these days;
but when it comes from the heart, ....

the final report of the Territory Economic Reconstruction Committee (TERC), is an absolute turd. The opening line is BATSHIT INSANE, and it’s all downhill from that point.

And, oh: hello, the first face on it is Mr Henderson.

The logic is impeccable:
Who better to lead strategic planning to recover the NT economy,
than the same chief minister who set it up to fail in the first place.

Now, I know some peeps worry over Mr Henderson’s current role as a Chariman of Mobile LNG. They say this, and other perceived ties to the fossil fuel industry, distorts his role on the Commission: that he might be more interested in setting up opportunities for his fossil mates than developing an economy for Territorians;

But clearly, that decision was made before he was engaged.

In fact, the Commission were literally given instructions, titled ‘Operation Rebound’, which were quite specific in assuring a role for gas (maliciously mislabeled as ‘clean energy’).

Gunner’s announcement of the TERC had him very enthusiastic that gas would feature in the new commission’s advice. and before that, Scumo had already similarly appointed fossil industry big wig (and former Territorian) Andrew Liveris to chart a gas-led recovery for the nation.

So Mr Henderson can’t be accused of perverting the design: he’s personifying it.He’s not responsible for the bias to gas: just complicit.

‘gas shill’? Sure.
but I’m far more annoyed at his proven failure at economic management.

as the Report readily identifies:  Inpex was a massive fossil fuel project which Mr Henderson took credit for enticing to the Territory (from the NW shelf) with promises of less government interference.  (Someone give that man a medal!)

Some real locals were priced out of town during construction, leaving those who rode it out to suffer an entirely unmanaged crash.

From his time as Resource Minister ushering the foreign gas company in, to his two terms as Chief overseeing (without interfering with) the boom, Mr Henderson neglected to plan for the inevitable.

After dredging our Living Harbour, and falling short on promises of Traineeships and Apprenticeships for locals, the least he could’ve done was to look out for the many locals who were sticking it out, rather than benefiting from what we were assured was a once-in-a-lifetime economic opportunity.

By the time we hit the wall without a seatbelt, Adam Giles was driving, and he copped stick for it (fair enough, he didn’t seem to have any good ideas). But it was Mr Henderson who set it up, and presided over the boom: the fact that the ‘opportunity’ of Inpex ended up harming our economy is on him.

And while I don’t really hold him responsible for the content or direction of this Report, I’m certain his is not the kind of mind we need to address economic rejuvenation. I really resent that this appointment, while of absolutely zero value to Territorians, will have been of benefit to furthering his post-parliamentary career.

But let’s have a quick look at the turd the TERC dropped. In fact, for starters, let’s carefully consider the first sentence. Which, as I already warned, is BATSHIT insane.

Now hang on: we’ve recently been through the wild economic growth of Inpex, and not all enjoyed higher living standards as a result. When rents kept rising, some long term locals had to leave Darwin’s unaffordable market - either go bush, or go interstate.

Some people got good salaries for a while - but not everyone; certainly not all Territorians. Some who did spent silly, and then had to sell the new boat when the job was gone. Even this Report admits the economy was not well after the crash.

Yet the Report aspires to an even higher growth rate (see Figure 2). Locals would be understandably hesitant to subscribe to the assumption that churning more wealth through the economy would meet our primary need from economic rejuvenation: employment opportunities.

Now, its important to note that this $40b aspiration is ridiculously fantastical; not so much an ambition as the suspension of rational belief. And I guess in some ways it can be useful to fantasise.

But this isnt presented as a basis for discussing how we want the economy to benefit us as it grows; what kind of jobs we want our economy to enable for us, what kind of lessons we want to take from pandemic, what new or increased needs we want to prioritise.

No, this Report asserts the well disproven b0rken assumption that growth - increasing the rate at which wealth is passing through the economy - trumps all other economic measurements and outcomes.

By their own admission,

“the Commission focused only on the industries and the enabling factors most likely to significantly shift the economic curve upwards”

Which economic curve? Not the jobs curve. They mean growth.

The Commission were given a target for that one economic parameter, and now they’ve shared some (very familiar and predictable) declarations on what actions could contribute to that target.

Will their suggestions provide the kind of employment opportunities local people might appreciate?

Or risk the kind of volatile rents that might make our towns unwelcoming to locals? If these suggestions are good for ‘growth’, are they good for Territorians?

Recommendation is made for a Territory Careers Pathway, but it’s cart-before-horse: this idea comes after they’ve chosen which opportunities to boost, which in turn comes from their assumptions about how to meet the (fantasy) growth target. Instead of reconstructing the economy to meet our needs, they want to plug Territorians into their idea of a boom economy

An appropriate approach to post-covid economic rejuvenation would have:

• identified those features of the NT economy most harmed by pandemic shutdown;
• described new opportunities anticipated for a post-pandemic economy;
• considered what shape of economy territorians want;

But no. This Report doesn't even explore the impact of global economic shutdown on the proposals it champions: It’s all about ‘back to business’, on the basis of pre-covid settings. No consideration that the board may have shifted in the meantime, and certainly no appetite for taking a fresh look at past assumptions.

‘But wait!’ I hear, ‘thare’s a baby in that frack-fluid bathwater!’

So OK, my butterfly-chasing optimist friends, let’s acknowledge the glitter on this turd.

It’s this, remarkably sensible but nonetheless still unfamiliar news to governments:

I imagine that this clear, sensible and welcome recommendation will get considerable resucitation over the remainder of the Gunner regime’s time. Both Territory and Federal labor parties eschew interim carbon emissions reduction targets, and in fact Territory Labor have declared an intent to grow the NT’s emissions as high as they will until 2030.

The rarity value of this common-sense recommendation will save the TERC Final Report from getting shredded. Gunner etal are doomed to be reminded that they are committed to ignoring this good advice.

Readers are now invited to reflect on the integrity of this offering, given that it’s entirely incompatible with recommendations for methane mining, LNG production, gas industry services, more gas power, LNG to hydrogen, gas, gas and more gas. Why would the Commission present diametric recommendations? Which do we think will win prioritisation?

And tho the word ‘renewable’ is liberally sprinkled throughout the report, thare is no specific recommendation to support the rise of renewable industries, merely acknowledgement of this inevitability: and the authors cant resist accompanying almost every reference to renewables with the misnomer ‘low emissions technology’, by which they mean gas. Go figure.

Despite the structural inadequacy of the Commission’s approach (ie actively pursuing growth at the expense of more meaningful objectives) there are some good recommendations. Such as moving remote communities off diesel, and renewed investment in community housing. These are Good Things! Yep let’s do that.

The Commission’s work does not provide a strategy or a plan; but a justification for mistakes others have already chosen for us. The focus is not on how to rejuvenate and restructure our economy, but using the circumstances of pandemic decline to justify a full-boar tilt at certain high stakes industries.

I suspect the agenda for this project is defined by their recommendations for government to:

• Deliver roads;
• ‘Modernise’ water regulation;
• Provide clarity / certainty / guidance on land access (noting, pastoral, aboriginal land and sacred sites)
• review legislation and regulation, addressing any complexity, clarity and timeframe issues for industry
• improve regulatory efficiency, including national environment laws

And if that sounds like a grab bag of wishes from the fracking industry, thankyou for your attention.