senate estimates hearings hear estimates of 39Mtpa

This week's appearance of representatives of the Commonwealth Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources put some meat on the bones of recent ABC reporting over the vastly under-estimated emissions anticipated from fracking the Beetaloo Basin. But more importantly, clarified that the Commonwealth would merely advise the NT on how they might pursue offsets for this huge carbon burden.

39Mt of carbon a year is far beyond what could be saved by immediately converting all NT electricity supply to solar; or by massively expanding our carbon farming / fire management successes across the NT. In fact, this huge, unmanageable carbon bomb would - according to the economists at The Australia Institute - require purchasing credits that cost around $500M at current prices, but can be expected to reach a cost of over $4B by 2030, and up to $50B the following decade.

As discussed elsewhere, these are billions that the NT just doesn't have. Fracking the NT seems like just another plan for piling on unmanageable debt.

See the exchange, and transcript, below:

Hot air: Dodging Beetaloo emissions at estimates

TLDW: here is where the Department of Resources ties itself in knots over exactly how the emissions from the proposed Beetaloo gas field can ever be 'offset'. The most greenhouse emissions Australia has ever abated is about 20 million tonnes. Beetaloo will emit an additional 5-39 million tonnes of emissions a year, depending on how you do the maths. It all adds up to a huge carbon bomb. Beetaloo is not safe and not wanted. It's safer for our climate, better for communities and less risky for our environment if we don't frack the Northern Territory.

Posted by Larissa Waters on Monday, March 2, 2020

Senator WATERS: Great. The figures that I have from the Clean Energy Regulator, or CER, website show that the most abatement that we've managed to secure in any one year is 20 million tonnes, which is to be delivered in 2021-22. Do you think it's possible to double those abatement levels?

Mr Fredericks : I think that's asking for an opinion.

Senator WATERS: Well, it's based on technological capacity and policy settings. The most we've been able to abate so far is 20 million. Is it theoretically possible to do better than that?

Ms Evans : Absolutely. We think it's theoretically possible to do better than that.

Senator WATERS: Do you think getting to 120 million tonnes a year would be feasible?

Senator Birmingham: You're not really putting any parameters around your questions, aside from the theoretically possible. I'm not sure that that is a reasonable grounds to expect officials to respond to questions on.

Senator WATERS: On the abatement options available to us at the minute, is 120 million possible?

Mr Fredericks : I don't think that's a question we can answer. I'm happy to take it on notice so we can give it consideration.

Senator WATERS: Thank you. The reason I'm asking is that the department has advised the minister that between 39 and 117 million tonnes of emissions would be released each and every year through the Beetaloo gas project. The Northern Territory government wants to offset it. You found it a bit challenging to say that we could do better than 20 million. You wouldn't give me an answer on whether we could reach 120 million. That's potentially what the Beetaloo gas project could be releasing every year. If it needed to be abated as the NT government insists, is that feasible?

Ms Evans : I just need to correct a couple of things that you have said. You said that it was our briefing to the minister that contained the reference to the 117 million tonnes.

Senator WATERS: Is that not correct?

Ms Evans : That's not correct. That figure is a reference in a meeting, which has been recorded. The reference was made by a Northern Territory government official. We understand that they were referring to a particular number that is in the Senate inquiry into hydraulic fracturing in the Northern Territory. The number is not a comparable number to anything we would use to measure Australia's emissions or report on in terms of our target.

Senator WATERS: Why not?

Ms Evans : For a number of reasons. The first is that that number, which comes from the report, is a number that reflects both emissions in Australia, which are ones that we would be using to refer to our target, and emissions associated with gas that might be burned overseas.

Senator WATERS: Are you saying that the 117 million includes scope 3?

Ms Evans : That's correct. In addition—

Senator WATERS: So what about—

Ms Evans : If you don't mind, in addition, that figure uses a global warming potential number which is based on a 20-year period, which is inconsistent with the guidelines for reporting on greenhouse gas emissions under the IPCC. So we use a 100-year global warming potential. These things are set out in specific guidelines. Actually, the 39 tonnes is the one at that scale that is consistent with the way we would report our emissions or our emissions towards our target in Australia. The 117 is simply another characterisation of that which uses a number of assumptions that are entirely inconsistent with the way we calculate our inventory.

Senator WATERS: Based on the normal methodology that you would use, you would say that it's more like 39 million tonnes a year, which is scope 1 and 2 in 100 years?

Ms Evans : That is the figure that was in the hydraulic fracturing in the Northern Territory report. It is referring to what the maximum level might be from that field. I would have to say that it is quite speculative. We're still talking about a field that is under development.

Senator WATERS: Yes. So what would be your assessment of the Beetaloo's emissions potential year on year, then? That is what I seek to understand.

Ms Evans : We would draw on that report to say, at the point once it's operating, we think there is the possibility that it might get as high as 39 million tonnes per year. But there's still a long time to go to work that out. And it's possible that it may only be as small as five.

Mr Fredericks : I think the evidence in the report was that it was a range, which you would expect in an issue like this. At this stage, that is obviously quite speculative. I think the range that was provided was five to 39.

Senator WATERS: That is scope 1 and 2 using the 100 years, not the 20 years. Is that correct?

Ms Evans : Yes. That's right. I beg your pardon. I have to check. Even that figure includes, I think, some scope 3 emissions. We might have to double-check that last part, sorry.

Senator WATERS: Come back to me on what your assessment is so I can cite with confidence the emissions projections.

Mr Fredericks : We'll take that on notice and come back with an assessment that obviously will provide you with all the relevant qualifications to assessment.

Senator WATERS: Yes. Thank you. If we've only managed to abate 20 million tonnes so far in our best and most successful year under ERF, and Beetaloo is between five and 39, how does the government envisage meeting the Northern Territory's demands for those emissions to be offset?

Ms Evans : Again, I think that's a matter of opinion. It's certainly possible to generate that volume of emissions credits. This is a market based—

Senator WATERS: Using ERF?

Ms Evans : It's a market based approach, so supply will always respond to a growth in demand. We would expect it to be possible to find those offsets.

Senator WATERS: Using the ERF with the existing envelope of money?

Ms Evans : I should clarify that this is a commitment by the Northern Territory government.

Senator WATERS: Hasn't the government agreed to meet that commitment?

Ms Evans : We've agreed to work with them to help them meet the commitment.

Senator WATERS: You've not finished that yet?

Ms Evans : We will continue to talk to them. We've had discussions with them about the different tools that are available from the Commonwealth's perspective. We have certainly talked to them about the Emissions Reduction Fund and what is available through that, which is not just the dollars that the Commonwealth puts into it. That's a whole framework that generates abatement credits. So not all of the abatement credits are purchased by the Commonwealth government. In this instance, for example, we could have a discussion about whether the Northern Territory government might start purchasing some abatements to meet their commitment to offset Beetaloo.

Senator WATERS: Have you finalised the offset agreement?

CHAIR: Senator Waters, how much longer do you want?

Senator WATERS: On this topic, maybe two or minutes would be great. Have you finalised the offset agreement with the NT government?

Ms Evans : I don't think there's a formal agreement per se. The commitment from the Commonwealth was to work with the Northern Territory, which we are certainly doing and have done already.

Senator WATERS: But on what? I thought it was on an offset agreement?

Ms Evans : It's on helping them to understand how they will meet their objective of offsetting the emissions from that field.

Senator WATERS: Using the Commonwealth? Are you guys going to also help with the abatement, or are you just telling them how they could do it with their own means?

Ms Evans : We don't know the outcome of that yet. We're still considering that.

Senator WATERS: I see. I thought the Commonwealth had actually committed to partner with the NT government to abate the emissions from this massive carbon bomb gas basin.

Ms Evans : We are willing to work with them.

Senator WATERS: On how they will right that. I didn't realise it was not even a commitment to do that. My last question on this topic is: has the department provided updated advice to the minister regarding the implications of emissions from the Beetaloo on the Paris targets?

Ms Bennett : We haven't provided updated information, as far as I'm aware.

Senator WATERS: Updated. When was the last time you provided information?

Ms Bennett : The last briefing would have been in October last year. That is the one referred to. I will check. The last briefing would have been in July 2019.

Senator WATERS: What was your advice about the emissions potential of Beetaloo at that point?

Ms Bennett : At that point, it could be between five and 39 million tonnes a year.

Senator WATERS: And you haven't updated that one yet?

Ms Bennett : No. Not in terms of the formal brief.

Ms Evans : Again, I will clarify that there would be no need to update those figures because they are the ones in the hydraulic fracturing report in the Northern Territory. They have not changed, nor has the 117 million tonnes number, which has been in the press in the last few days. It was also in that report based on those very different assumptions that I explained before. So nothing has changed for us to change our advice on.

Senator WATERS: Except your progress on the Northern Territory collaboration, hopefully.

Ms Evans : Sure.